KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 13): Brent crude oil prices are unlikely to return to the triple digits in the first half of 2023 (1H2023), according to Moody's Analytics.

“Although there is a good chance that there could be some volatility, given the execution of European sanctions on seabound transport of crude oil from Russia, we are still keeping up an assumption of something close to US$90 (RM398.56) a barrel [for Brent crude oil] as we get into early next year, but below US$100 a barrel.

"We are not looking at anything above US$100 a barrel through the middle of next year, and then an easing down to something more of an equilibrium rate, as supply and demand begin to equal out,” Moody’s Analytics senior economist Stefan Angrick said at a virtual briefing on the outlook for the Asia-Pacific region in 2023.

His prediction is based on the assumption that there will be no surprises coming out of the war in Ukraine. "We are not assuming there is an end to the war. We don't know when that will happen, but we are assuming that there will be no significant impact on oil prices, other than the volatility that may come from the sanctions that are going into place right now."

Brent crude oil was trading at US$79.25 a barrel on Tuesday (Dec 13), after trading at its peak of US$127.98 a barrel on March 8, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24 this year.