KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 13): Malaysia's economic growth likely slowed in the third quarter of the year, a Reuters poll showed, as exports and domestic consumption weakened.
The median forecast for 15 economists in a Reuters poll was for gross domestic product to grow 5.6 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, compared with 6.4 percent expansion in April-June.
Exports fell in July to 0.6 percent and only picked up slightly to 2.0 percent in September as some seasonal year-end demand started to come through.
Worsening global economic conditions have contributed to lower exports to countries like China.
Consumer spending has also cooled, with the retail and real estate sectors showing smaller gains.
For all of 2014, the economists forecast GDP growth of 5.8 percent.
Bank Negara Malaysia decided to hold the overnight policy rate at 3.25 percent in its meeting last week, while warning that risks to global growth could hurt its export-focused economy.
Forecasts for Q3 2014 GDP and full-year GDP (percentage change year-on-year):
| Forecasts |
3Q 2014 GDP |
2014 GDP |
| Median |
5.6
|
5.8
|
| High |
5.9
|
6.0
|
| Low |
5.0
|
5.6
|
| 2Q 2014 GDP |
6.4
|
5.6
|
| 2013 GDP |
-
|
4.7
|
| No. of respondents |
15
|
13
|
| AmBank |
5.6
|
5.7
|
| BA Merrill Lynch |
5.5
|
5.7
|
| CIMB |
5.2
|
6.0
|
| Credit Suisse |
5.8
|
5.8
|
| DBS |
5.9
|
5.9
|
| Forecast Pte |
5.7
|
5.8
|
| Hong Leong |
5.8
|
6.0
|
| HSBC |
5.7
|
-
|
| ING |
5.3
|
5.7
|
| Kenanga |
5.8
|
6.0
|
| Maybank |
5.6
|
6.0
|
| OCBC |
5.5
|
5.7
|
| RAM |
5.0
|
5.6
|
| Standard Chartered |
5.6
|
-
|
| UOB |
5.7
|
5.9
|